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How I Successfully Forecast The Results Of The UK General Election 2015
Paul Wilmott 2043 Views
Brought to you by Wilmott.com and the CQF Institute, Dr. Paul Wilmott talked about how he applied elementary quantitative finance techniques in the run up to the UK General Election 2015 to successfully predict the next government.
Comparisons are made between elections and derivatives valuation, and this allows forecasting pitfalls to be avoided, pitfalls that most, if not all, professional forecasters fell into. The results were thus far better than those made by said professionals.
Half of a Coin: Wilmott Magazine Article
Gábor J. Székely 1725 Views

Half coins are strange objects with infinitely many sides. They are numbered with 0, 1, 2, . . . and the positive even numbers are taken with negative probabilities. Two half coins make a complete coin in the sense that if we flip two half coins then the sum of the outcomes is 0 or 1 with 1/2 probability as if we simply flipped a fair coin. In this paper we clarify the meaning and interpretation of negative probabilities and illustrate their importance in finance.

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